[nonferrous] the price difference between cold rolled (industrial steel) and threaded (construction steel) hit a new low since September of 20 years


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[non ferrous] the price difference between cold rolling (industrial steel) and screw thread (construction steel) hit a new low since September of 20 years (2) the current price of gold in London this week was US $1700 / oz, which was – 2.00% compared with last week

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The position of SPDR gold ETF this week was 1069 tons, which was – 2.22% compared with last week

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Both the price and position of gold are at a low level since the second half of 2020

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(3) The yield spread of the 10-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States was 169 BP on Friday, the lowest level in 21 years compared with – 15 BP last week, which was mainly caused by the sharp rise of US bonds

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Infrastructure real estate chain: short term real estate sales continue to strengthen

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(1) the weekly value of land planning area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 7.71 million square meters this week, which was + 40.83% compared with last week, rising for the first time since February 21, but still at a low level in the same period; the turnover area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China accounted for about 10% of the national sales area in 2019, which was 3.83 million square meters this week, which was + 2.83% compared with last week 83%, which is higher than that in the same period of four years

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(2) This week, the capacity utilization rate / operating rate of blast furnace, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire in China were – 0.23%, + 2.5%, – 1.5% and + 16.39% respectively on a month on month basis

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As the Spring Festival factor subsided, the operating rate of all steel tire reached a record high in the same period, close to the highest value in history

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(3) Price changes this week: thread + 0.65%, cement – 0.27%, rubber – 7.54%, coke – 3.70%

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Industrial product chain: copper and aluminum prices fell for the first time after reaching a nine-year high, and lithium carbonate prices continued to rise

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(1) in March 2021, the price dropped to 51.5 points (- 0.8 points on a month on month basis), but it was still at a very high level since May 2012 (the highest value since May 2012 was 54.8 points in October 2017); the national small enterprise PMI new order index in March 2021 was 47.9 points (- 1.5 points on a month on month basis, which was in the middle of history A bit

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(2) The main commodity price performance: cold rolled steel – 0.53%, copper – 5.47%, aluminum – 0.93%, copper estimated profit is 7712 yuan / ton (excluding tax), month on month – 4.57%; electrolytic aluminum estimated profit is 2724 yuan / ton (excluding tax), month on month – 8.27%, still at a historical high

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(3) New energy vehicle material price performance: lithium hexafluorophosphate + 21.21%, lithium carbonate + 3.65%, cobalt + 0.00%

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Export chain: China’s export containerization price index continued to decline (1) CCFI index (China’s export container freight index), this week was 1970.58 points, – 4.32% month on month, continued to decline, but still at a very high level in history; (2) on March 1, 2021, the global PMI new order value was 53.8 points, – 0.4% month on month, but still at a high level in history

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Price comparison: the price difference between cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel continued to turn downward after the first rebound in February

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(1) the price difference between cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai reached 710 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month ratio of – 30 yuan / ton, and continued to turn downward since the rebound in February; the price difference between cold-rolled steel and ribbed steel in Shanghai was 990 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month ratio of – 60 yuan / ton, and continued to turn downward since the rebound in February

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(3) The price ratio of thread to iron ore was 3.96 this week, continuing to rise, but it is not far from the lowest value of 3.52 in nearly 10 years

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Valuation quantile: the ratio quantile of Pb in major cycle sectors relative to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2012) is 7.62% for petrochemicals, 9.32% for real estate, 21.74% for Pugang, 7.35% for coal, 17.16% for shipping, 27.41% for industrial metals, 21.60% for cement, 81.37% for chemical industry, 94.40% for commercial trucks and 90.29% for construction machinery

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Risk tips: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; the risk of macro policy adjustment; the risk of poor management of the company

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Date of issue: 2021-03-09 disclaimer this subscription number is the only official subscription number of the Research Institute of Everbright Securities Co., Ltd

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