Oxford Institute of Economics: in the future of the global construction industry, China, India and the United States will become the

Graham Robinson, director of global infrastructure at the Oxford Institute of economics and the lead author of the report, said it was unusual to see the construction industry surpass the growth of services and manufacturing for a long time.

From 2020 to 2030, the construction output value of North America will increase by 32%, or US $580 billion, and reach US $2.4 trillion by 2030.

The Chinese government’s main stimulus measures, especially for infrastructure, led to a rebound in construction activity in 2021.

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Construction output is expected to grow by an average of 4.5% over the past five years from 2020 to 2025, which is again higher than that of manufacturing or service industries, and is driven by the rapid recovery of COVID-19 and the huge support of the government.

North America in the United States, the strong housing growth unrestricted by the blockade is promoting the development of the construction industry; Non residential growth is expected to remain sluggish.

Spending to accumulate excess household savings is expected to contribute to this growth.

The demand for new housing is driven by strong population growth and the demand for new housing by the growing urban middle class.

Forecasts produced by the Oxford Institute of economics and marsh McLennan, marsh and guy carpenter.

However, the forecast contains some surprises.

The report points out that climate change and net zero competition are the biggest challenges facing construction, which is expected to promote new deconstruction opportunities, and ESG related capital will increase by 28% in 2020, mainly due to capital inflow into sustainable development related strategies.

Be not at all surprising there was no parallel in history.

From 2020 to 2030, the growth of construction output value in the Asia Pacific region will account for us $2.5 trillion, and will increase by more than 50% by 2030, becoming a US $7.4 trillion market.

Latin America will see near double-digit growth this year, the authors said.

Western Europe is expected to grow by 23% between 2020 and 2030, and is expected to push the construction output value to $2.5 trillion by 2030.

In the short term, the global construction output value is expected to reach US $13.3 trillion by 2025 – an increase of US $2.6 trillion in five years from 2020.

Driven by the US $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and other government stimulus plans, global production is expected to increase by 6.6% in 2021.

The main infrastructure expenditure plans will be used to rebuild highways, railways, repair old bridges and dig new tunnels.

The return to the urban center will support the growth of multi family housing.

The next iteration of the American Employment Program Act (AJP) will focus on infrastructure construction in the United States.

The two core drivers of India in the next decade will be the demand for new houses and the huge demand for infrastructure.

In 2020, the output of the global construction industry will be US $10.7 trillion.

It is expected that the average annual growth rate of construction output will reach 3.6% in the decade to 2030 – higher than that of manufacturing or service industry.

The construction industry will become a global engine for economic growth and recovery from covid-19.

Population growth will drive the growth of construction demand in emerging markets, which will be driven by the demand for infrastructure and housing construction driven by population growth and urbanization in emerging countries.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is expected to provide momentum for the global economy in the next ten years, considering the unprecedented nature of government spending on infrastructure and the release of excess household savings after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia outbreak.

At the same time, the report predicts that permanent immigrants will promote the construction demand of the whole Anglo circle and other developed countries, while the growing working age population will stimulate workplace construction, and gradually returning to the urban center will lead to more multi family housing construction.

Jeremy Leonard, managing director of industry services at the Oxford Institute of economics and author of the report, said: “developed economies have accumulated a large amount of household surplus savings.”   “In North America, we estimate that excess savings far exceed 10% of GDP.

Permanent immigrants will support the construction needs of developed countries.

Housing construction will remain important; This is driven by refurbishment and maintenance work.

Supply chain bottlenecks that limit activity levels and lead to soaring inflation in the construction industry are expected to be temporary, but pose a risk to our forecasts.

Permanent immigrants to the Anglo circle (the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) and Germany and other OECD countries will help support the needs of these developed countries.

For example, with the launch of large projects in the UK, the average annual growth rate of infrastructure in the UK is 3.7%, which is comparable to that in China.

Social and cultural changes will lead to the demand for infrastructure such as data centers, warehouses and telecommunications networks to support the increasing digitization of the economy.

Britain will overtake Germany in 2023 and remain sixth because it will be overtaken by Indonesia in 2024.

The author said that the additional output in this decade will reach US $4.5 trillion, and the construction output will reach US $15.2 trillion by 2030, accounting for 13.5% of the global GDP.

In the decade to 2030, the growth of construction industry will be higher than that of manufacturing or service industry.

According to a new global forecast, the construction industry will become the engine of global economic growth in the decade of 2030, and its output is expected to be 35% higher than that in the decade of 2020.

Canada has a similar trend.

The growth of working age population in India and Indonesia, Canada and Australia will support the demand for workplace construction.

  After the end of COVID-19, the transformation to the city center is expected to gradually recover momentum and will support the growth of multi family housing construction.

Growth will be concentrated in a few countries, with only four countries – China, India, the United States and Indonesia – accounting for about 58% of the expected global expansion.

The growth of German housing sector is expected to last for 2-3 years, but the poor population structure will weaken the long-term demand for new housing construction..

The need to develop new infrastructure is directly related to the country’s growth trajectory, resulting in the demand for transportation infrastructure, power grids and utilities.

We expect this figure to increase by 42% or US $4.5 trillion to US $15.2 trillion between 2020 and 2030.

We expect that the higher demand for industrial and logistics space will support the growth of online business, retail and manufacturing.

India will become the third largest, overtaking Japan in 2023, while Indonesia will overtake Germany, Britain and Japan as the fourth largest in 2030.

By 2030, China and the United States will rank first in the world’s annual output, but the report predicts that the current situation will change in 2020.

Even when we estimate very conservatively how much excess savings will be spent, growth in most developed countries will remain strong by 2022.”   They said that the growth will start this year.

The author of the book “the future of architecture” says that between now and 2030, depressed family savings, COVID-19 stimulus plan and population growth will push together an average annual growth of 3.6%, pushing the expansion of construction industry ahead of the growth of manufacturing and service industries.

Europe as the main growth opportunity for the next generation EU fund focuses on supporting the post pandemic rebound and improving the climate sustainability of the EU economy.

The global construction industry will become a global engine for economic growth and recovery from covid-19.

Special attention is paid to supporting new railway infrastructure and electric vehicle charging network, as well as investing in supporting old buildings to improve energy efficiency.

In the medium term, we will no longer emphasize infrastructure projects, but pay more attention to the development of non residential real estate investment, focusing on consumer led growth areas such as retail, entertainment, health and education buildings.

The growing working age population helps to drive the demand for workplace construction.


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