[early tips February 14] the domestic demand for construction steel has improved, and the price of rebar may continue to strengthen

According to the information released by the passenger Federation, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in January is expected to reach 2.05 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.2%, which is smaller than that of the previous month.

Energy and chemical pulp: according to the data of europulp, the stock of pulp in European ports at the end of December 2021 decreased by 3.89% month on month and 13.58% year-on-year.

Cotton: during the Spring Festival, the production of terminal weaving, printing and dyeing stopped completely.

At present, the operating rate of downstream weaving has recovered slowly, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has rebounded to more than 13%.

Crude oil: according to OPEC’s latest new moon, second-hand data show that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 64000 barrels / day to 27.98 million barrels / day in January, lower than the increase in production promised in the OPEC + agreement.

Before the inflection point of nickel inventory does not appear, maintain the long logic, and the price continues to rise is still a probability event.

It is expected that the average prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil in 2022 will be 79.35 US dollars / barrel and 82.87 US dollars / barrel respectively, compared with 71.32 US dollars / barrel and 74.95 US dollars / barrel previously expected.

Recently, the spot price of furnace charge fluctuates greatly.

Click the blue word to pay attention to our macro and financial futures stock index: last week, the A-share market rebounded as a whole, the transactions in the two markets were enlarged, and the northward capital was mainly inflow.

Precious metal and non-ferrous metal copper: the global green economic transformation and electrification drive the demand for copper.

This week, the downstream projects will resume work one after another, and most steel mills will resume production.

At present, the logistics situation after the festival has not been fully restored, and the production recovery of downstream enterprises is general.

The total stock decreased from 1177900 tons at the end of November to 1132100 tons.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the output of beet sugar is expected to be reduced by 640000 tons to 900000 tons year-on-year.

Indonesia has introduced policies to restrict palm oil exports.

At the end of January, the operating rate of the yarn mill was around 18%.

The shock of zinc price is strong.

It is expected that the price of American beans and domestic soybean meal will remain strong in the short term.

At the same time, the total inventory in the current spot market is much lower than that in the same period last year.

U60 Magnetic Profile

The main reason is that the new demand cycle generated by new energy gives new consumption growth points to copper, and the price support of copper in the long term is relatively strong.

The continuous shortage of labor in plantations in Malaysia has made palm oil production lower than the potential level, which has supported palm oil prices.

The EIA’s latest monthly report significantly raised the expected average oil price in 2022.

The stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year; M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year (previous value + 9%).

During the pressing season of 2021 / 22, the domestic market is expected to have a gap of 5.5 million tons, and the support below white sugar is more obvious.

Rubber: the operating rate of all steel tire sample manufacturers was 20.15%, up 61.35% month on month, and that of semi steel tire sample manufacturers was 39.98%, down 27.32% month on month.

After the festival, with the gradual development of the policy side, the index is expected to rise gradually.

The impact of limited production of some manufacturers in Yunnan has weakened.

Affected by the epidemic, Southwest Aluminum Plant is also facing the crisis of shutdown, and the circulation of aluminum ingots in the market is tight.

Black rebar: in the short term, the current spot market is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the emotional side drives the price rise.

Recently, the market sentiment is optimistic, the price support mentality of merchants is strong, and the copper price shock is relatively strong.

According to the preliminary data of the first commercial vehicle network, in January 2022, China’s heavy truck market sold about 78000 vehicles, up 36% month on month compared with December 2021, but down 57% from 183400 vehicles in the same period last year.

The central bank released financial credit data for January 2022.

Aluminum price callback does not change upward expectations.

It is expected that the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace plants will rise sharply.

In terms of consumption, the trading atmosphere in the spot market was cold.

On the other hand, the production reduction aluminum plant is slow to resume production.

The EIA also raised the US crude oil production forecast for 2023 to 12.6 million barrels per day.

Meal of agricultural products: as the weather in South American soybean producing areas has not improved recently, soybean output may continue to decline.

Ethylene glycol: as of 1 / 10, the total inventory of MEG ports in East China’s main ports was 795400 tons, an increase of 47400 tons compared with Monday, and the inventory of main ports continued to accumulate.

The operating load of polyester industry increased by 1.08% to 87.22% compared with the previous trading day.

Nickel: London continues to go to the warehouse, and the internal and external inventory is at a very low level.

Oil shock is strong.

We should pay attention to the introduction of the policy of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” by relevant departments and beware of the risk of chasing up and killing down.

The start-up rate of oil plants is at a medium and low level, and the replenishment cycle may be ushered in after the Spring Festival.

At present, under the improvement of macro atmosphere and the return of demand, strengthen the logic of continuous going to the warehouse, and long funds continue to push up the strength of nickel.

In November 2021, the stock of pulp in European ports at the end of the month increased by 2.12% month on month and decreased by 20.95% year-on-year.

Oil: according to the latest supply and demand report of USDA in February, the global soybean oil inventory at the end of the year is about 3.5 million tons to 4.7 million tons, and the global soybean oil warehouse sales ratio has decreased from 6.47% in 2019 / 2020 to 6.10% in 2020 / 2021.

Overall, the domestic demand for construction steel has improved, and the price may continue to strengthen..

The total stock increased from 1153500 tons at the end of October to 1177900 tons.

White sugar: by the end of January, all 14 sugar factories in Xinjiang had been shut down, and a total of 12 in Inner Mongolia had been shut down.

Aluminum: on the supply side, under the influence of overseas power, aluminum smelters continued to reduce production, and LME inventory fell for more than half a month, stimulating the rise of the external market; On the one hand, the domestic import window is closed and the imported aluminum ingots are missing.

Zinc: domestically, the production restriction status continues in Shaanxi and Guangxi at the smelting end, and the degree of production restriction is alleviated according to the local power supply situation.

Cooling and snowing weather occurred in some areas, which affected the purchase and sales of enterprises to a certain extent, and the pressure on short-term cotton fluctuated.

At present, the basis of oil meal is stable, and the inventory of soybean meal is at the lowest level in the same period of five years, which may be short-term or volatile.


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